Auburn, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

470
FXUS64 KBMX 060050
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
750 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 749 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025

A cluster of previously severe, now strong, storms continues to
push eastward across Middle Tennessee and will remain north of
Central Alabama. Isolated convection across Central Alabama has
dissipated. Will be watching an outflow boundary trailing west-
southwestward from the Tennessee convection just ahead of the cold
front. This is currently moving into far northwest Mississippi.
Development along this boundary has been limited thus far, but
approaching mid-level cooling will help aid scattered convection
that may reach our northern counties late this evening and into
the overnight. Low-level inhibition will increase as temperatures
fall but remain mild, but steepening mid-level lapse rates will
still keep MUCAPE values up around 2000 J/kg overnight. With
effective shear values around 25-30kt, some storms overnight could
be strong with small hail and gusty winds, with a very low but
non-zero risk of a severe storm with hail/damaging winds.

Meanwhile convection across North Texas is expected to grow
upscale into one or more MCSs across the ArkLaTex overnight. This
activity or at least its outflow is expected to move into Alabama
after daybreak tomorrow in a weakened state. These boundaries, the
cold front moving through from the northwest, and cyclonic flow
aloft around the base of the anomalous trough across the
central/eastern US/Canada will contribute to higher chances of
showers/storms. Highest rain chances look to be across the
northern counties in the morning. Chances for scattered showers
persist into the afternoon hours and extend further southeast than
previously forecast. Mid-level lapse rates will weaken by
afternoon but with around 25 kts of 0-6km shear there will be a
risk for some strong storms with gusty winds. It does look
activity should greatly decrease in coverage by the late
afternoon/evening hours.

32/JDavis

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025

No significant changes needed with this long term forecast update.
Drier air in place behind tomorrow`s cold front will leave us
"cooler" through the week with highs generally in the 80s with
lows in the 60s. We could see a isolated shower or two across our
southeastern areas next week as moisture begins to return.
However, without much forcing, not expecting too much activity.

95/Castillo

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025

The extended will be mostly warm and dry across Central Alabama
during the afternoons, with highs in the mid to upper 80s through
Thursday. Lows will be a refreshing upper 50s to mid 60s, depending
on location. Some rain and storms appear to be possible across the
far southeast, south of I-85, at least a couple days during the
week. However, confidence on the northward extent of this is
currently low, as most activity will be closer to the Gulf Coast.
For now, no rain chances are mentioned in the forecast for any of
Central Alabama from Sunday through Thursday.
12

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025

A cold front will move into the area during this TAF cycle,
bringing 1 to 2 rounds of at least scattered showers and storms.
The first (lower confidence) round may impact the northern
terminals between ~5z and ~10z. The second round has somewhat
higher confidence but still not enough to include more than a
PROB30 mention. This round will generally be between 15z and 00z
Saturday, earlier for the northern terminals and later for the
southern terminals. There are also medium chances for MVFR cigs
around mid-morning at the northern terminals. Winds will become
northwesterly around 6-8kts as the front passes.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Min RH values will range from 35-45% this afternoon and 40-55%
Saturday afternoon across Central Alabama, with chances for isolated
to scattered showers across the area through this afternoon. Rain
chances increase tonight through Saturday afternoon, especially
across northern and central counties. Behind the front, min RHs
through the week will be as low as 35%, with a drier airmass
working in. While no critical thresholds will be met, the area
will be dry from Sunday through Thursday, potentially increasing
fire concerns in that aspect, especially in areas that receive
little to no rain this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  86  62  83 /  50  60  10   0
Anniston    70  86  64  82 /  40  60  10   0
Birmingham  72  86  64  83 /  50  60  10   0
Tuscaloosa  72  87  65  84 /  40  50  10   0
Calera      72  89  65  84 /  40  50  10   0
Auburn      72  89  68  85 /  10  40  10   0
Montgomery  72  91  68  88 /  10  40  10   0
Troy        71  91  68  88 /   0  40  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32/JDavis
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...32